Desire
A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.98
2.83 coins
Advertised RTP
91.04%
EV $1.80 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.78%
80.7K openings, odds method
Variance
26.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 76
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 91.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.25% – 98.30%, 80,676 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.982.83 coins$65.7993.98 coins33.21x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.982.83 coins$65.7993.98 coins33.21x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.982.83 coins$52.2674.66 coins26.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.98 | 91.04% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.01 | 90.86% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.01 | 90.89% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 2.1%Mythical 0.5%restricted 1.6%classified 0.8%consumer 95.0%best hit $381 (189.5x)