Destiny

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$222.86

318 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $202.60 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.37%

22 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

22 openings · below min

30 days

22 openings · below min

since tracking started

22 openings · below min

45.0%87.5%130.0%

Small sample. 22 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	22	87.37%±41.9	—	odds
30d	22	87.37%±41.9	—	odds
All	22	87.37%±41.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$1,844 2,635 coins	9.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$1,432 2,045 coins	3.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$642 917 coins	6.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 13	$431 615 coins	17.0%	2	1.8	1.14×
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$383 547 coins	9.4%	3	1.1	2.73×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 50	$337 482 coins	3.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 20	$269 384 coins	6.6%	3	1.1	2.73×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	11.5%	$186 265 coins	10.5%	1	2.5	0.40×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 20	$183 261 coins	4.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$123 176 coins	12.2%	3	4.4	0.68×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	40.0%	$88.20 126 coins	17.4%	10	8.8	1.14×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.