Digital Drops
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$99.85
143 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $90.77 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.94%
1,396 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,396 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedLegend$99.85143 coins$4.907 coins0.05x
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified$99.85143 coins$23.3033.28 coins0.23x
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified$99.85143 coins$23.3033.28 coins0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $99.85 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $99.93 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.24 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 69.5%classified 30.5%best hit $1,600 (16.02x)