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Dipped

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$15.66
22.37 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $14.23 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.90%
3,756 openings, odds method
Variance
34.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
101.15%±58.58382 openings
7 days
109.62%±20.223,167 openings
30 days
104.90%±18.553,756 openings
since tracking started
104.90%±18.553,756 openings
42.0%101.3%160.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h382101.15%±58.6+0.3σodds
7d3,167109.62%±20.2+1.8σodds
30d3,756104.90%±18.6+1.5σodds
All3,756104.90%±18.6+1.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,756 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 10,000$7,455 10,650 coins5.2%10.4—
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 400$855 1,221 coins15.0%89.40.85×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 125$334 477 coins18.8%3930.01.30×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 69$93.10 133 coins9.4%6154.11.13×
USP-S | Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 40$42.90 61.28 coins7.5%10293.91.09×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 14$28.72 41.03 coins14.1%260262.90.99×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 33$27.65 39.5 coins5.8%117112.71.04×
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 50$26.67 38.1 coins3.7%8775.11.16×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 13$17.47 24.95 coins9.8%334300.51.11×
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified75.0%$1.99 2.85 coins10.5%2,7472817.00.98×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · RubyAh Barnicles$16.0022.85 coins$7,45510,650 coins466.1x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$16.0022.85 coins$8741,248 coins54.62x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$16.0022.85 coins$8741,248 coins54.62x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$16.0022.85 coins$8741,248 coins54.62x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$16.0022.85 coins$8741,248 coins54.62x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$15.6622.37 coins$8551,221 coins54.58x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$15.6622.37 coins$8551,221 coins54.58x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$15.6622.37 coins$8551,221 coins54.58x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$15.6622.37 coins$8551,221 coins54.58x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$15.6622.37 coins$1.992.85 coins0.13x
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$15.6622.37 coins$1.992.85 coins0.13x
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$15.6622.37 coins$1.992.85 coins0.13x
Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$15.6622.37 coins$28.7241.03 coins1.83x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$15.6622.37 coins$8551,221 coins54.58x
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedJake$15.6622.37 coins$27.6539.5 coins1.77x
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$15.6622.37 coins$1.992.85 coins0.13x
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$15.6622.37 coins$1.992.85 coins0.13x
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$15.6622.37 coins$1.992.85 coins0.13x
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$15.6622.37 coins$1.992.85 coins0.13x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$15.6690.90%10
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$15.7990.89%10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$16.0090.90%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.7%restricted 0.8%classified 95.5%extraordinary 2.0%best hit $7,455 (466.1x)