Dirt Cheap
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.78
1.11 coins
Advertised RTP
91.09%
EV $0.71 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.85%
27.4K openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $60.47 86.39 coins | 0.9% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.09× |
| MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.96 2.8 coins | 41.5% | 4,143 | 4116.6 | 1.01× |
| P90 | Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.95 1.36 coins | 13.5% | 2,738 | 2744.4 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 13.5% | 4,049 | 4116.6 | 0.98× |
| Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 10.9% | 5,456 | 5486.1 | 0.99× |
| MP7 | Akoben (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 10.9% | 5,566 | 5488.8 | 1.01× |
| P2000 | Turf (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.32 0.45 coins | 8.9% | 5,489 | 5488.8 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$Barbieespecedeconnasse$$0.781.11 coins$0.390.55 coins0.50x
P2000 | Turf (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$Barbieespecedeconnasse$$0.781.11 coins$0.320.45 coins0.41x
MP7 | Akoben (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$Barbieespecedeconnasse$$0.781.11 coins$0.390.55 coins0.50x
Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$Barbieespecedeconnasse$$0.781.11 coins$0.390.55 coins0.50x
Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$Barbieespecedeconnasse$$0.781.11 coins$0.390.55 coins0.50x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.09%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $0.78 | 91.09% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $0.78 | 90.54% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $0.78 | 90.72% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.78 | 90.54% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.80 | 90.71% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.80 | 90.80% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.79 | 90.99% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.80 | 90.85% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $0.80 | 90.67% | 7 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.79 | 90.55% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%restricted 15.0%mil spec 85.0%best hit $60.47 (77.13x)