Disorientation

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$49.36

70.52 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $44.87 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.61%

86 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

71 openings · below min

30 days

86 openings · below min

since tracking started

86 openings · below min

73.5%168.5%263.5%

Small sample. 86 openings and 20.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	186.30%±76.6	—	odds
7d	71	96.39%±22.3	—	odds
30d	86	94.61%±20.3	—	odds
All	86	94.61%±20.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$939 1,341 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$334 477 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$218 311 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 286	$175 250 coins	1.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 133	$174 249 coins	2.9%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 77	$164 234 coins	4.7%	2	1.1	1.79×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 625	$155 221 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$148 212 coins	0.8%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$111 159 coins	5.5%	4	1.9	2.11×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$105 150 coins	18.7%	9	6.9	1.31×
FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$98.00 140 coins	21.8%	8	8.6	0.93×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$79.10 113 coins	4.4%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 56	$77.00 110 coins	3.1%	4	1.5	2.58×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 67	$69.71 99.59 coins	2.3%	1	1.3	0.78×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$56.55 80.78 coins	5.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$42.97 61.38 coins	2.9%	0	2.6	0.00×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$39.07 55.82 coins	4.4%	4	4.3	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$27.62 39.45 coins	4.0%	6	5.6	1.07×
G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$22.16 31.66 coins	4.7%	9	8.1	1.11×
MAC-10 \| Graven (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$19.38 27.69 coins	5.2%	9	10.3	0.87×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$15.30 21.85 coins	0.3%	0	0.9	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.0%	$13.14 18.77 coins	4.4%	10	12.9	0.78×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$2.12 3.03 coins	0.7%	18	12.9	1.40×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$49.3670.52 coins$111159 coins2.25x20h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$49.3670.52 coins$164234 coins3.32x20h

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$49.3670.52 coins$105150 coins2.13x20h

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted$49.3670.52 coins$27.6239.45 coins0.56x20h

Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specoshri412$49.3670.52 coins$39.0755.82 coins0.79x20h

Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$49.3670.52 coins$2.123.03 coins0.04x1d

MAC-10 | Graven (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$49.3670.52 coins$19.3827.69 coins0.39x1d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$49.3670.52 coins$105150 coins2.13x1d

FAMAS | Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted$49.3670.52 coins$98.00140 coins1.99x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$49.36	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$48.96	90.90%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$48.92	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 19.5%restricted 47.5%mil spec 8.5%blue 9.4%classified 15.0%best hit —