Dispersion
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.42
14.88 coins
Advertised RTP
90.94%
EV $9.47 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.04%
1,947 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,947 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $165 235 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 333 | $99.40 142 coins | 3.1% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.37× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $96.60 138 coins | 5.1% | 2 | 9.7 | 0.21× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $62.36 89.09 coins | 19.8% | 69 | 58.4 | 1.18× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $45.15 64.5 coins | 7.2% | 30 | 29.2 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $45.13 64.47 coins | 23.8% | 94 | 97.4 | 0.97× |
| Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $12.24 17.48 coins | 19.4% | 300 | 292.1 | 1.03× |
| Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 19.5% | $5.17 7.38 coins | 10.6% | 396 | 379.7 | 1.04× |
| P250 | Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $2.09 2.99 coins | 5.5% | 456 | 486.8 | 0.94× |
| Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 2.0% | 590 | 584.1 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedBRÄTT <3$10.4214.88 coins$5.177.38 coins0.50x
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedBRÄTT <3$10.4214.88 coins$45.1364.47 coins4.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $10.42 | 90.94% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $10.39 | 90.89% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.40 | 90.89% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.60 | 90.89% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $10.65 | 90.88% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.63 | 90.88% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.61 | 90.93% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.2%mil spec 55.3%classified 20.0%restricted 19.5%best hit —