Divided

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$189.13

270 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $171.93 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.90%

63 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

58 openings · below min

30 days

63 openings · below min

since tracking started

63 openings · below min

45.0%88.0%131.0%

Small sample. 63 openings and 8.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	58	84.91%±39.2	—	odds
30d	63	92.90%±37.6	—	odds
All	63	92.90%±37.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 63 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,023 7,175 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 400	$2,895 4,135 coins	4.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$2,716 3,880 coins	1.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$1,551 2,216 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 667	$1,301 1,859 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| BnTeT (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 56	$1,069 1,527 coins	11.2%	1	1.1	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$827 1,182 coins	4.8%	0	0.6	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$627 895 coins	2.9%	1	0.5	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$587 838 coins	23.9%	0	4.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$561 801 coins	6.5%	2	1.3	1.59×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 222	$509 727 coins	1.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 83	$509 727 coins	3.6%	1	0.8	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$429 613 coins	6.2%	3	1.6	1.90×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · legendary	1 in 67	$246 352 coins	2.1%	0	0.9	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$223 318 coins	6.5%	2	3.2	0.63×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 13	$183 261 coins	8.5%	6	5.0	1.19×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 11	$142 203 coins	7.6%	5	5.8	0.86×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 11	$111 158 coins	5.8%	10	5.7	1.76×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	50.0%	$4.74 6.77 coins	1.4%	31	31.5	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.