Doom

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$43.36

61.94 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $39.41 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.00%

9,287 openings, odds method

Variance

47.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 91

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.10%±46.97832 openings

7 days

83.18%±15.767,333 openings

30 days

84.00%±13.999,287 openings

since tracking started

84.00%±13.999,287 openings

33.5%81.0%128.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	832	81.10%±47.0	−0.4σ	odds
7d	7,333	83.18%±15.8	−1.0σ	odds
30d	9,287	84.00%±14.0	−1.0σ	odds
All	9,287	84.00%±14.0	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,287 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$7,000 10,000 coins	8.9%	4	4.6	0.86×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$6,790 9,700 coins	17.2%	6	9.3	0.65×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 286	$1,292 1,845 coins	11.5%	30	32.5	0.92×
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 167	$1,066 1,523 coins	16.2%	50	55.7	0.90×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$743 1,061 coins	9.4%	38	46.4	0.82×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 667	$676 966 coins	2.6%	22	13.9	1.58×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 400	$636 909 coins	4.0%	29	23.2	1.25×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$576 823 coins	14.6%	104	92.9	1.12×
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$160 229 coins	4.1%	84	92.9	0.90×
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$76.30 109 coins	1.9%	89	92.9	0.96×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	30.0%	$6.94 9.91 coins	5.3%	2,809	2786.1	1.01×
Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	30.0%	$4.69 6.7 coins	3.6%	2,791	2786.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	35.0%	$0.78 1.12 coins	0.7%	3,231	3250.5	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$43.3661.94 coins$7,00010,000 coins161.4x2d

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$43.7162.45 coins$6,9169,880 coins158.2x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$43.7162.45 coins$6,8299,755 coins156.2x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubym1chi$43.3661.94 coins$6,7909,700 coins156.6x21h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$43.3661.94 coins$6,7909,700 coins156.6x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$43.3661.94 coins$6,7909,700 coins156.6x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$43.3661.94 coins$4.696.7 coins0.11x25m

FAMAS | Djinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$43.3661.94 coins$6.949.91 coins0.16x25m

Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$43.3661.94 coins$4.696.7 coins0.11x25m

FAMAS | Djinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$43.3661.94 coins$6.949.91 coins0.16x25m

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryRelaxa *$43.3661.94 coins$1,2921,845 coins29.79x25m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$43.3661.94 coins$0.781.12 coins0.02x27m

Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$43.3661.94 coins$4.696.7 coins0.11x27m

FAMAS | Djinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$43.3661.94 coins$6.949.91 coins0.16x27m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$43.36	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$43.49	90.91%	13
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$43.71	90.90%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$43.71	90.92%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.1%covert 4.5%extraordinary 0.5%classified 30.0%mil spec 30.0%restricted 35.0%best hit $7,000 (161.4x)