Dopplers Only
A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$468.99
670 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $426.36 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.89%
158 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 158 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$475679 coins$9,72313,890 coins20.46x
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldBlyatman$475679 coins$5,7758,250 coins12.15x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$475679 coins$2,1703,100 coins4.57x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$475679 coins$2,1603,085 coins4.54x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$475679 coins$1,5092,156 coins3.18x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Boomster$475679 coins$8911,273 coins1.88x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$475679 coins$8911,273 coins1.88x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Boomster$475679 coins$8911,273 coins1.88x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2xSazukiii$475679 coins$8911,273 coins1.88x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$475679 coins$8911,273 coins1.88x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$469670 coins$267382 coins0.57x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$469670 coins$115165 coins0.25x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$469670 coins$115165 coins0.25x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$469670 coins$8721,246 coins1.86x
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$469670 coins$108154 coins0.23x
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$469670 coins$108154 coins0.23x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$469670 coins$266380 coins0.57x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Mountain$469670 coins$267382 coins0.57x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3trae$469670 coins$266380 coins0.57x
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Kopa1668$469670 coins$442631 coins0.94x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $469 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $475 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 100.0%best hit $9,723 (20.46x)