Downfall

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$134.90

193 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $122.64 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.99%

218 openings, odds method

Variance

3.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

108.24%±27.47184 openings

30 days

99.99%±25.24218 openings

since tracking started

99.99%±25.24218 openings

-0.5%109.8%220.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	67.72%±151.8	—	odds
7d	184	108.24%±27.5	+1.2σ	odds
30d	218	99.99%±25.2	+0.7σ	odds
All	218	99.99%±25.2	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 218 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$1,865 2,665 coins	22.8%	6	3.3	1.83×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$1,142 1,631 coins	4.7%	1	1.1	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 40	$560 800 coins	11.4%	1	5.5	0.18×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$525 750 coins	12.8%	6	6.5	0.92×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 50	$155 221 coins	2.5%	4	4.4	0.92×
Sticker \| flamie (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 14	$130 186 coins	7.4%	14	15.3	0.92×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.0%	$129 184 coins	15.8%	35	32.7	1.07×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 13	$88.90 127 coins	5.8%	13	17.4	0.75×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	12.0%	$66.79 95.42 coins	6.5%	37	26.2	1.41×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$38.02 54.31 coins	3.7%	22	26.2	0.84×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	18.0%	$26.75 38.22 coins	3.9%	41	39.2	1.04×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	18.5%	$17.09 24.41 coins	2.6%	38	40.3	0.94×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$139198 coins$1,9492,785 coins14.06x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$139198 coins$1,9492,785 coins14.06x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryKulleZ$139198 coins$1,9492,785 coins14.06x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$135193 coins$1,8652,665 coins13.83x1d

Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedNxxh$139198 coins$1,1341,620 coins8.18x5d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$139198 coins$560800 coins4.04x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$135193 coins$525750 coins3.89x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covertachilles$139198 coins$518740 coins3.74x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$135193 coins$26.7538.22 coins0.20x20h

Sticker | flamie (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$135193 coins$130186 coins0.97x20h

M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$135193 coins$129184 coins0.95x20h

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$135193 coins$66.7995.42 coins0.50x20h

M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedLars$135193 coins$129184 coins0.95x20h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$135193 coins$17.0924.41 coins0.13x1d

M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedDECOY$135193 coins$26.7538.22 coins0.20x1d

M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$135193 coins$129184 coins0.95x1d

M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$135193 coins$26.7538.22 coins0.20x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$135	90.91%	12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$135	90.91%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$139	90.91%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 8.5%restricted 18.5%covert 13.5%rare 2.0%classified 57.5%best hit $1,949 (14.06x)