Dragon Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.24
76.06 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $48.40 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.94%
152 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $193 276 coins | 59.9% | 17 | 22.8 | 0.75× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $109 156 coins | 22.6% | 15 | 15.2 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $58.58 83.69 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 1.6% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified | 1 in 20 | $25.12 35.88 coins | 2.6% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× |
| FAMAS | Spitfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $19.96 28.52 coins | 7.0% | 31 | 25.8 | 1.20× |
| P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $19.30 27.57 coins | 4.0% | 10 | 15.2 | 0.66× |
| MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $1.95 2.78 coins | 0.8% | 43 | 30.4 | 1.41× |
| Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.80 1.15 coins | 0.3% | 28 | 30.4 | 0.92× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specBeastafiedBeast$53.2476.06 coins$0.801.15 coins0.02x
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classifiedm1chi$53.2476.06 coins$25.1235.88 coins0.47x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $53.24 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $53.24 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $53.36 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $54.48 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.44 | 90.90% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 28.0%Classified 5.0%restricted 17.0%classified 10.0%mil spec 40.0%best hit —