Dragons

A case on CSGORoll (hot, 25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$47.21

67.45 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $42.92 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.20%

715 openings, odds method

Variance

15.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

87.56%±32.30567 openings

30 days

92.20%±28.78715 openings

since tracking started

92.20%±28.78715 openings

-0.5%150.0%300.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	79.22%±220.6	—	odds
7d	567	87.56%±32.3	−0.2σ	odds
30d	715	92.20%±28.8	+0.1σ	odds
All	715	92.20%±28.8	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 715 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000,000	$158K 225,000 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$10.6K 15,130 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,688 8,125 coins	1.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 1,000	$592 846 coins	1.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$291 415 coins	13.5%	11	14.3	0.77×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$190 271 coins	39.8%	72	64.3	1.12×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$186 265 coins	4.3%	5	7.2	0.70×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$88.20 126 coins	10.3%	38	35.8	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$77.00 110 coins	5.4%	17	21.4	0.79×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$59.44 84.91 coins	6.8%	41	35.0	1.17×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$50.61 72.3 coins	5.9%	45	35.8	1.26×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 25	$33.81 48.3 coins	3.2%	25	28.6	0.87×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$21.90 31.28 coins	4.1%	68	57.2	1.19×
Sticker \| Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 11	$7.89 11.27 coins	1.7%	67	64.3	1.04×
Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 11	$6.17 8.82 coins	1.3%	63	64.3	0.98×
Sticker \| Dragon (Foil)sticker · exotic	10.0%	$1.82 2.6 coins	0.4%	57	71.5	0.80×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$0.29 0.42 coins	0.1%	107	107.3	1.00×
Sticker \| Dragon Talesticker · high	15.0%	$0.06 0.08 coins	0.0%	98	107.3	0.91×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$47.2167.45 coins$592846 coins12.54x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exoticCrimzie$47.2167.45 coins$7.8911.27 coins0.17x2h

Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic$47.2167.45 coins$6.178.82 coins0.13x17h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$47.2167.45 coins$21.9031.28 coins0.46x17h

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$47.2167.45 coins$190271 coins4.02x17h

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classifiedBOT jorb$47.2167.45 coins$50.6172.3 coins1.07x17h

Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic$47.2167.45 coins$6.178.82 coins0.13x21h

Sticker | Dragon Talesticker · high$47.2167.45 coins$0.060.08 coins0.00x21h

Sticker | Dragon (Foil)sticker · exoticrrtyuifanboy$47.2167.45 coins$1.822.6 coins0.04x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$47.21	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$47.21	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$46.52	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$46.84	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 14.0%epic 0.1%classified 19.9%restricted 4.0%rare 4.0%exotic 28.0%mil spec 15.0%high 15.0%best hit $592 (12.54x)