Dreamland
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.63
3.75 coins
Advertised RTP
90.85%
EV $2.38 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.70%
97.4K openings, odds method
Variance
18.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 97.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $226 323 coins | 9.5% | 88 | 97.5 | 0.90× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 250 | $70.70 101 coins | 11.9% | 399 | 390.1 | 1.02× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $65.46 93.51 coins | 27.4% | 971 | 975.1 | 1.00× |
| Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $28.72 41.03 coins | 12.0% | 940 | 975.1 | 0.96× |
| Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $13.02 18.6 coins | 10.9% | 1,908 | 1950.3 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 29 | $11.92 17.03 coins | 17.5% | 3,471 | 3413.0 | 1.02× |
| CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $11.88 16.97 coins | 10.0% | 1,946 | 1950.3 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.8% | 87,790 | 87761.7 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerPoarad | csgoroll.com$2.633.75 coins$0.020.03 coins0.01x
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrialŠtozaxuinia$2.633.75 coins$70.70101 coins26.93x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.63 | 90.85% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.62 | 90.85% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.59 | 91.01% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.60 | 90.89% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%industrial 0.4%classified 4.0%restricted 5.5%consumer 90.0%best hit $236 (90.59x)