Dubious
A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.48
0.68 coins
Advertised RTP
91.23%
EV $0.43 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.25%
269K openings, odds method
Variance
119.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 277
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 269K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary𓂀 ℝ𝕚𝕜𝕠 𓂀$0.480.68 coins$174249 coins366.2x
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryDreaMz-$0.480.68 coins$174249 coins366.2x
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryTrUnKs$0.480.68 coins$174249 coins366.2x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.23%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.48 | 91.23% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.47 | 91.22% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.47 | 91.17% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.3%classified 0.7%consumer 99.0%best hit $312 (664.2x)