Duo
A case on CSGORoll (csgo, knives, 20%, gloves, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.61
33.73 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $21.47 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.35%
3,485 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,485 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$23.6133.73 coins$42.8861.26 coins1.82x
★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$23.6133.73 coins$102145 coins4.30x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$23.6133.73 coins$7.9411.35 coins0.34x
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryRelaxa *$23.6133.73 coins$42.8861.26 coins1.82x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Drift Wood (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$23.6133.73 coins$0.230.33 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $23.61 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $23.61 | 90.90% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $23.61 | 90.90% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.67 | 90.90% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $23.80 | 90.90% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $23.79 | 90.92% | 22 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $23.79 | 90.92% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.80 | 90.90% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 7.2%covert 4.5%restricted 10.9%classified 4.9%industrial 12.5%mil spec 40.0%consumer 20.0%best hit $676 (28.64x)