Earthquake

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$82.34

118 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $74.85 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.57%

5,783 openings, odds method

Variance

14.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

100.95%±52.04207 openings

7 days

95.27%±10.175,366 openings

30 days

94.57%±9.805,783 openings

since tracking started

94.57%±9.805,783 openings

48.5%101.0%153.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	207	100.95%±52.0	+0.4σ	odds
7d	5,366	95.27%±10.2	+0.8σ	odds
30d	5,783	94.57%±9.80	+0.7σ	odds
All	5,783	94.57%±9.80	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,783 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$5,023 7,175 coins	6.7%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 167	$2,755 3,935 coins	22.1%	32	34.7	0.92×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 333	$1,059 1,513 coins	4.2%	24	17.3	1.38×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$1,037 1,482 coins	13.9%	65	57.8	1.12×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 50	$894 1,277 coins	23.9%	133	115.7	1.15×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 67	$348 497 coins	7.0%	103	86.7	1.19×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 22	$200 285 coins	12.0%	254	260.2	0.98×
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$12.42 17.75 coins	5.0%	1,750	1734.9	1.01×
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	30.0%	$9.27 13.24 coins	3.7%	1,692	1734.9	0.98×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	30.0%	$3.91 5.58 coins	1.6%	1,726	1734.9	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$83.79120 coins$5,1707,385 coins61.70x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covertDer beste Uwe$83.79120 coins$5,1707,385 coins61.70x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$83.79120 coins$5,1707,385 coins61.70x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$82.34118 coins$2,7553,935 coins33.45x11h

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$82.34118 coins$2,7553,935 coins33.45x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$82.34118 coins$3.915.58 coins0.05x3h

MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted$82.34118 coins$12.4217.75 coins0.15x3h

P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$82.34118 coins$9.2713.24 coins0.11x3h

MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restrictedHUd$82.34118 coins$12.4217.75 coins0.15x3h

USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$82.34118 coins$3.915.58 coins0.05x3h

P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$82.34118 coins$9.2713.24 coins0.11x3h

P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedHUd$82.34118 coins$9.2713.24 coins0.11x3h

USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specKickerrrrrrrr$82.34118 coins$3.915.58 coins0.05x8h

MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted$82.34118 coins$12.4217.75 coins0.15x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$82.34	90.91%	10
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$82.77	90.91%	10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$83.79	90.91%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.0%epic 2.0%restricted 30.0%classified 30.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit $5,170 (61.70x)