Easter Gem

A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$36.53

52.18 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $33.21 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.90%

2,061 openings, odds method

Variance

16.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.36%±53.90218 openings

7 days

86.14%±19.571,667 openings

30 days

85.90%±17.612,061 openings

since tracking started

85.90%±17.612,061 openings

23.0%77.5%132.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	218	77.36%±53.9	−0.5σ	odds
7d	1,667	86.14%±19.6	−0.5σ	odds
30d	2,061	85.90%±17.6	−0.6σ	odds
All	2,061	85.90%±17.6	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,061 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$20.8K 29,650 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 20,000	$6,790 9,700 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 25,000	$6,657 9,510 coins	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$5,978 8,540 coins	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 20,000	$3,892 5,560 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$3,892 5,560 coins	1.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$2,513 3,590 coins	1.5%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 3,333	$1,897 2,710 coins	1.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$1,545 2,207 coins	2.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,429	$1,161 1,658 coins	2.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$1,079 1,541 coins	3.2%	2	2.1	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$887 1,267 coins	2.7%	4	2.1	1.94×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 500	$692 989 coins	4.2%	3	4.1	0.73×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 667	$636 909 coins	2.9%	5	3.1	1.62×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 500	$491 701 coins	3.0%	8	4.1	1.94×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 333	$325 464 coins	2.9%	5	6.2	0.81×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 400	$299 427 coins	2.3%	5	5.2	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$206 294 coins	3.1%	8	10.3	0.78×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$142 203 coins	4.3%	16	20.6	0.78×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 33	$134 192 coins	12.1%	66	61.8	1.07×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 25	$118 168 coins	14.2%	80	82.4	0.97×
Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil AK-47 (Battle Green)graffiti · base	30.0%	$13.42 19.17 coins	12.1%	620	618.3	1.00×
Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil AK-47 (War Pig Pink)graffiti · base	30.0%	$12.57 17.95 coins	11.4%	637	618.3	1.03×
Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil AK-47 (Shark White)graffiti · base	30.0%	$9.55 13.64 coins	8.6%	601	618.3	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby✪Tiketas$36.5352.18 coins$2,5133,590 coins68.80x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$36.7452.49 coins$1,1121,588 coins30.25x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$36.5352.18 coins$1,0791,541 coins29.53x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$36.7452.49 coins$9061,294 coins24.65x7d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$36.5352.18 coins$8871,267 coins24.28x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1The other other guy$36.5352.18 coins$8871,267 coins24.28x2d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl$36.7452.49 coins$692989 coins18.84x6d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl$36.7452.49 coins$692989 coins18.84x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Battle Green)graffiti · base$36.5352.18 coins$13.4219.17 coins0.37x1h

Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White)graffiti · base$36.5352.18 coins$9.5513.64 coins0.26x1h

Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White)graffiti · baseElChapo$36.5352.18 coins$9.5513.64 coins0.26x1h

Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (War Pig Pink)graffiti · base$36.5352.18 coins$12.5717.95 coins0.34x2h

Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White)graffiti · base$36.5352.18 coins$9.5513.64 coins0.26x2h

Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Battle Green)graffiti · baseCousin of po$36.5352.18 coins$13.4219.17 coins0.37x2h

Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (War Pig Pink)graffiti · base$36.5352.18 coins$12.5717.95 coins0.34x2h

Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White)graffiti · base$36.5352.18 coins$9.5513.64 coins0.26x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$36.53	90.91%	24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$36.55	90.90%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$36.74	90.90%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.0%covert 9.8%legendary 0.2%base 90.0%best hit $2,513 (68.80x)