Echo

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.37

14.81 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $9.42 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.30%

2,937 openings, odds method

Variance

21.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.81%±50.16325 openings

7 days

98.19%±18.162,572 openings

30 days

102.30%±17.022,937 openings

since tracking started

102.30%±17.022,937 openings

41.0%91.8%142.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	325	91.81%±50.2	+0.0σ	odds
7d	2,572	98.19%±18.2	+0.8σ	odds
30d	2,937	102.30%±17.0	+1.3σ	odds
All	2,937	102.30%±17.0	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,946 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 10,000	$3,136 4,480 coins	3.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,407 2,010 coins	1.5%	1	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,050 1,500 coins	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$673 962 coins	2.1%	1	0.9	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$493 705 coins	1.6%	1	0.9	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$473 676 coins	1.5%	1	0.9	—
ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo/Foil)other · base	1 in 1,111	$365 522 coins	3.5%	4	2.7	1.51×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$355 507 coins	3.8%	4	2.9	1.36×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 667	$330 471 coins	5.2%	9	4.4	2.04×
Sticker \| cajunb (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · exotic	1 in 333	$242 346 coins	7.7%	13	8.8	1.47×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 204	$149 213 coins	7.8%	15	14.4	1.04×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$118 169 coins	3.1%	6	7.4	0.81×
MAC-10 \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 71	$51.36 73.37 coins	7.6%	43	41.2	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$25.77 36.81 coins	4.1%	50	44.2	1.13×
UMP-45 \| Indigo (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 20	$13.95 19.93 coins	7.4%	143	147.3	0.97×
Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	10.5%	$9.09 12.99 coins	10.1%	310	309.3	1.00×
MAG-7 \| Seabird (Factory New)weapon · consumer	16.0%	$6.57 9.38 coins	11.1%	483	471.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$5.23 7.47 coins	11.1%	564	589.2	0.96×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$5.21 7.44 coins	0.6%	37	29.5	1.26×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	21.0%	$2.38 3.4 coins	5.3%	625	618.7	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Factory New)weapon · common	22.1%	$0.16 0.23 coins	0.4%	636	651.1	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$10.3714.81 coins$1,4072,010 coins135.7x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$10.3714.81 coins$673962 coins64.96x5h

★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covertm0nke$10.1214.46 coins$507725 coins50.14x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Seabird (Factory New)weapon · consumerBumBum$10.3714.81 coins$6.579.38 coins0.63x59m

Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)weapon · common$10.3714.81 coins$0.160.23 coins0.02x59m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$10.3714.81 coins$2.383.4 coins0.23x59m

Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)weapon · common$10.3714.81 coins$0.160.23 coins0.02x59m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$10.3714.81 coins$2.383.4 coins0.23x59m

Souvenir Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$10.3714.81 coins$9.0912.99 coins0.88x59m

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$10.3714.81 coins$5.237.47 coins0.50x2h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedBRÄTT <3$10.3714.81 coins$2.383.4 coins0.23x2h

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$10.3714.81 coins$149213 coins14.38x2h

UMP-45 | Indigo (Factory New)weapon · consumer$10.3714.81 coins$13.9519.93 coins1.35x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$10.37	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$10.37	90.89%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$10.20	90.88%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$10.12	90.93%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedhigh 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.8%base 0.1%exotic 0.3%classified 1.7%consumer 22.4%mil spec 30.5%industrial 1.0%restricted 21.0%common 22.1%best hit $1,407 (135.7x)