Eclipse

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$220.13

314 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $200.12 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

21.29%

239 openings, odds method

Variance

55.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

216 openings · below min

30 days

239 openings · below min

since tracking started

239 openings · below min

-0.5%60.8%122.0%

Small sample. 239 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	216	22.50%±98.9	—	odds
30d	239	21.29%±94.1	—	odds
All	239	21.29%±94.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 239 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base	1 in 400	$25K 35,730 coins	31.2%	0	0.6	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 400	$17.6K 25,125 coins	22.0%	0	0.6	—
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 400	$10.3K 14,660 coins	12.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$6,269 8,955 coins	7.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 80	$1,100 1,572 coins	6.9%	1	3.0	0.33×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 80	$964 1,377 coins	6.0%	5	3.0	1.67×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 80	$545 779 coins	3.4%	2	3.0	0.67×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 80	$285 407 coins	1.8%	1	3.0	0.33×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$239 341 coins	3.0%	7	6.0	1.17×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$164 234 coins	2.0%	4	6.0	0.67×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$158 226 coins	1.6%	4	4.8	0.84×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$97.30 139 coins	1.0%	7	4.8	1.46×
Sticker \| Watermelon Tentaskullsticker · high	17.0%	$2.00 2.86 coins	0.2%	33	40.6	0.81×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	17.0%	$1.26 1.8 coins	0.1%	50	40.6	1.23×
R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	17.0%	$0.99 1.41 coins	0.1%	42	40.6	1.03×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	17.0%	$0.87 1.24 coins	0.1%	46	40.6	1.13×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	17.0%	$0.41 0.59 coins	0.0%	37	40.6	0.91×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$221316 coins$1,1311,616 coins5.11x3d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$221316 coins$9641,377 coins4.35x3d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$221316 coins$9641,377 coins4.35x5d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$221316 coins$9641,377 coins4.35x6d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$221316 coins$545779 coins2.46x3d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$221316 coins$545779 coins2.46x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$220314 coins$0.871.24 coins0.00x1d

Sticker | Watermelon Tentaskullsticker · high$220314 coins$2.002.86 coins0.01x1d

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$220314 coins$1.261.8 coins0.01x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertKickerrrrrrrr$220314 coins$97.30139 coins0.44x1d

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedKickerrrrrrrr$220315 coins$1.301.85 coins0.01x2d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$220315 coins$0.410.58 coins0.00x2d

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$221316 coins$1.301.85 coins0.01x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$220	90.91%	17
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$220	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$220	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$220	90.91%	17
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$221	90.91%	17
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$221	90.91%	17
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$221	90.91%	17
3 Nov, 09:32 UTC	$221	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$221	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbase 0.3%legendary 0.3%remarkable 0.3%extraordinary 1.5%covert 10.3%classified 2.5%high 17.0%restricted 34.0%mil spec 34.0%best hit $1,131 (5.11x)