Ecological

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$113.62

162 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $103.29 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.43%

35 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

31 openings · below min

30 days

35 openings · below min

since tracking started

35 openings · below min

38.0%87.5%137.0%

Small sample. 35 openings and 5.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	31	88.53%±47.7	—	odds
30d	35	83.43%±44.9	—	odds
All	35	83.43%±44.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 333	$2,079 2,970 coins	6.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 143	$592 846 coins	4.0%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 250	$533 762 coins	2.1%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$465 664 coins	15.7%	1	1.2	0.82×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$424 606 coins	2.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 154	$398 569 coins	2.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 182	$396 565 coins	2.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 133	$356 508 coins	2.6%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$295 421 coins	2.9%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 125	$232 332 coins	1.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 50	$169 242 coins	3.3%	0	0.7	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 25	$151 215 coins	5.8%	0	1.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$121 173 coins	11.7%	5	3.5	1.43×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 33	$106 151 coins	3.1%	2	1.1	1.90×
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$101 144 coins	4.9%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 15	$63.16 90.23 coins	4.0%	2	2.3	0.88×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	12.0%	$59.14 84.48 coins	6.9%	7	4.2	1.67×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$55.14 78.77 coins	3.7%	3	2.5	1.22×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$47.80 68.28 coins	3.7%	2	2.8	0.71×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	14.0%	$43.81 62.59 coins	5.9%	3	4.9	0.61×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	19.4%	$27.90 39.86 coins	5.2%	8	6.8	1.18×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.