Egg smash
A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.99
1.42 coins
Advertised RTP
90.63%
EV $0.90 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.34%
59.5K openings, odds method
Variance
708.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 59.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.991.42 coins$0.881.25 coins0.88x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$0.991.42 coins$0.190.27 coins0.19x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specTimothy trollailee csgoroll.com$0.991.42 coins$0.190.27 coins0.19x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$0.991.42 coins$0.490.7 coins0.49x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$0.991.42 coins$0.190.27 coins0.19x
StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTommiB$0.991.42 coins$0.731.05 coins0.74x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.63%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $0.99 | 90.63% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.99 | 91.11% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.98 | 90.72% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.98 | 90.72% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.98 | 90.84% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.94 | 91.22% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.94 | 91.22% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.7%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 9.5%mil spec 42.3%industrial 22.5%common 25.0%best hit $1,844 (1,856x)