Eggcellent

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.71

33.87 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $21.55 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.10%

1,604 openings, odds method

Variance

8.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.28%±44.89162 openings

7 days

81.92%±15.491,373 openings

30 days

88.10%±14.341,604 openings

since tracking started

88.10%±14.341,604 openings

38.5%84.3%130.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	162	84.28%±44.9	−0.3σ	odds
7d	1,373	81.92%±15.5	−1.1σ	odds
30d	1,604	88.10%±14.3	−0.4σ	odds
All	1,604	88.10%±14.3	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,604 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 10,000	$1,584 2,263 coins	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 1,000	$1,130 1,614 coins	5.2%	3	1.6	1.87×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,667	$900 1,286 coins	2.5%	1	1.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$627 896 coins	0.9%	0	0.5	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 500	$509 727 coins	4.7%	0	3.2	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 400	$452 646 coins	5.2%	5	4.0	1.25×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 333	$442 631 coins	6.1%	1	4.8	0.21×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$291 416 coins	2.0%	2	2.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 222	$270 386 coins	5.6%	7	7.2	0.97×
Sticker \| OpTic Gaming (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · exotic	1 in 133	$174 248 coins	6.0%	10	12.0	0.83×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$142 203 coins	6.6%	16	16.0	1.00×
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$112 160 coins	2.6%	3	8.0	0.37×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$95.20 136 coins	8.8%	45	32.1	1.40×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 37	$60.72 86.75 coins	7.6%	43	43.3	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$45.89 65.55 coins	8.5%	72	64.2	1.12×
Sticker \| B1ad3 (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · exotic	1 in 17	$45.46 64.94 coins	12.7%	102	96.2	1.06×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 67	$43.06 61.52 coins	3.0%	26	24.1	1.08×
MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$23.98 34.26 coins	5.6%	81	80.2	1.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	20.0%	$3.73 5.33 coins	3.5%	336	320.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	25.0%	$1.34 1.92 coins	1.6%	407	401.0	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$0.32 0.45 coins	0.4%	444	481.2	0.92×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high$24.1634.51 coins$1,1301,614 coins46.77x4d

Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high$24.1634.51 coins$1,1301,614 coins46.77x5d

Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high$24.1634.51 coins$1,1301,614 coins46.77x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$24.1634.51 coins$9441,348 coins39.06x8d

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$24.1634.51 coins$7391,056 coins30.60x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$23.7133.87 coins$1.341.92 coins0.06x4h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$23.7133.87 coins$3.735.33 coins0.16x4h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$23.7133.87 coins$1.341.92 coins0.06x4h

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified$23.7133.87 coins$291416 coins12.28x4h

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$23.7133.87 coins$95.20136 coins4.02x4h

Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedBigSturg$23.7133.87 coins$45.8965.55 coins1.94x4h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$23.7133.87 coins$1.341.92 coins0.06x7h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$23.7133.87 coins$3.735.33 coins0.16x7h

Sticker | B1ad3 (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · exotic$23.7133.87 coins$45.4664.94 coins1.92x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$23.71	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$23.71	90.92%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$23.74	90.92%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$24.16	90.92%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.2%high 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 80.3%classified 4.7%legendary 0.4%exotic 6.8%rare 1.5%best hit $1,130 (46.77x)