Eggtastic

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.70

25.28 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $16.09 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.07%

1,770 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.41%±11.60298 openings

7 days

90.56%±5.351,423 openings

30 days

89.07%±4.801,770 openings

since tracking started

89.07%±4.801,770 openings

83.0%95.2%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	298	95.41%±11.6	+0.8σ	odds
7d	1,423	90.56%±5.35	−0.1σ	odds
30d	1,770	89.07%±4.80	−0.7σ	odds
All	1,770	89.07%±4.80	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,770 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 22,727	$390 557 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,526	$312 446 coins	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$251 358 coins	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 4,000	$233 333 coins	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,941	$210 300 coins	0.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,961	$207 296 coins	0.7%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 90,909	$204 292 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,695	$182 260 coins	0.7%	2	1.0	1.92×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 11,905	$168 240 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 66,667	$153 219 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 16,129	$142 203 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,282	$137 196 coins	0.7%	2	1.4	1.45×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,031	$137 196 coins	0.8%	2	1.7	1.16×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 41,667	$118 169 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,538	$114 163 coins	0.5%	1	1.2	0.87×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 417	$95.90 137 coins	1.4%	5	4.2	1.18×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow DaggersStatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 833	$88.20 126 coins	0.7%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 286	$74.20 106 coins	1.6%	9	6.2	1.45×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 172	$69.86 99.8 coins	2.5%	12	10.3	1.17×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 222	$64.32 91.88 coins	1.8%	3	8.0	0.38×
★ Shadow Daggersknife · covert	1 in 116	$62.44 89.2 coins	3.3%	13	15.2	0.85×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 135	$52.74 75.34 coins	2.4%	17	13.1	1.30×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$51.29 73.27 coins	3.2%	10	17.7	0.56×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 67	$44.32 63.32 coins	4.1%	22	26.6	0.83×
Sticker \| Sprout Esports (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · exotic	1 in 102	$43.74 62.48 coins	2.7%	14	17.3	0.81×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$36.93 52.75 coins	10.3%	92	79.6	1.16×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 19	$31.18 44.55 coins	10.3%	66	93.8	0.70×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 29	$23.55 33.65 coins	5.1%	70	62.0	1.13×
Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 15	$17.67 25.25 coins	7.3%	131	117.9	1.11×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$16.13 23.04 coins	7.5%	154	133.3	1.16×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$14.83 21.18 coins	6.4%	131	123.9	1.06×
Sticker \| FURIA (Holo) \| Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable	1 in 11	$12.40 17.72 coins	6.8%	179	155.8	1.15×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 14	$7.43 10.62 coins	3.3%	121	126.4	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 14	$6.34 9.05 coins	2.9%	118	129.0	0.91×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	12.0%	$5.56 7.95 coins	4.2%	207	212.4	0.97×
Sticker \| Watermelon Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable	10.0%	$5.55 7.93 coins	3.4%	155	177.0	0.88×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	13.0%	$4.76 6.8 coins	3.8%	233	230.1	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedRusty Cake$17.7025.28 coins$4.766.8 coins0.27x18m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$17.7025.28 coins$36.9352.75 coins2.09x18m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBiO-HaZarD$17.7025.28 coins$16.1323.04 coins0.91x18m

Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo)sticker · remarkableBRÄTT <3$17.7025.28 coins$17.6725.25 coins1.00x18m

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)weapon · uncommonRusty Cake$17.7025.28 coins$6.349.05 coins0.36x21m

Sticker | Watermelon Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable$17.7025.28 coins$5.557.93 coins0.31x21m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$17.7025.28 coins$4.766.8 coins0.27x45m

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)weapon · uncommon᠌ ᠌Liwon$17.7025.28 coins$6.349.05 coins0.36x45m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$17.70	90.92%	37
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$17.40	90.89%	37
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$17.42	90.91%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.8%red 0.0%epic 0.0%classified 32.0%uncommon 27.9%exotic 1.0%Ancient 5.3%rare 3.5%remarkable 25.5%best hit —