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Energy

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$37.00
52.85 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $33.63 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.39%
1,447 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
90.50%±24.96163 openings
7 days
92.97%±8.911,159 openings
30 days
93.39%±7.931,447 openings
since tracking started
93.39%±7.931,447 openings
65.0%90.5%116.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h16390.50%±25.0−0.0σodds
7d1,15992.97%±8.91+0.4σodds
30d1,44793.39%±7.93+0.6σodds
All1,44793.39%±7.93+0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,451 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 11 in 10,000$1,583 2,262 coins0.5%00.1—
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 2,000$957 1,367 coins1.4%20.7—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 1,000$751 1,073 coins2.2%21.51.38×
P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 200$493 704 coins7.3%57.30.69×
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 400$403 575 coins3.0%13.60.28×
★ Skeleton Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 333$292 417 coins2.6%84.41.84×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 57$176 252 coins9.2%2525.40.98×
★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 143$116 166 coins2.4%810.20.79×
★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 77$114 163 coins4.4%1818.90.95×
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 100$90.30 129 coins2.7%2214.51.52×
★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 50$63.74 91.06 coins3.8%3629.01.24×
Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)weapon · restricted12.0%$42.60 60.85 coins15.2%188174.11.08×
Galil AR | CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 26$42.34 60.48 coins4.8%5655.11.02×
★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 43$42.19 60.27 coins2.9%2733.40.81×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 22$41.03 58.61 coins5.5%7065.31.07×
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 37$33.42 47.74 coins2.7%3739.20.94×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$32.80 46.86 coins4.9%7072.50.96×
★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · Emerald1 in 33$30.87 44.1 coins2.8%5043.51.15×
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 25$19.94 28.48 coins2.4%5958.01.02×
P2000 | Woodsman (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted15.0%$19.62 28.03 coins8.8%200217.70.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 11$16.41 23.44 coins4.4%123130.60.94×
Glock-18 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 14$13.61 19.45 coins2.8%108101.61.06×
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified23.7%$4.89 6.98 coins3.4%336344.50.98×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireNecro$37.0052.85 coins$9571,367 coins25.87x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$37.7653.94 coins$9481,354 coins25.10x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$37.0052.85 coins$7511,073 coins20.30x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$37.0052.85 coins$7511,073 coins20.30x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$37.0052.85 coins$4.896.98 coins0.13x
Galil AR | CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$37.0052.85 coins$42.3460.48 coins1.14x
P2000 | Woodsman (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$37.0052.85 coins$19.6228.03 coins0.53x
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary★ UnToUcHaBlE ™$37.0052.85 coins$33.4247.74 coins0.90x
★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · Emerald$37.0052.85 coins$30.8744.1 coins0.83x
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$37.0052.85 coins$4.896.98 coins0.13x
P2000 | Woodsman (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedBigSturg$37.0052.85 coins$19.6228.03 coins0.53x
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$37.0052.85 coins$4.896.98 coins0.13x
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified✟Lav$37.0052.85 coins$4.896.98 coins0.13x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$37.0052.85 coins$90.30129 coins2.44x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$37.0090.91%23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$38.3390.91%23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$37.7690.91%23
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.1%classified 28.7%extraordinary 6.4%restricted 39.8%mil spec 5.0%industrial 11.0%best hit $957 (25.87x)