Equation

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$102.81

147 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $93.46 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.04%

427 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

29 openings · below min

7 days

91.56%±12.11195 openings

30 days

94.04%±8.18427 openings

since tracking started

94.04%±8.18427 openings

49.5%81.7%114.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	29	81.63%±31.5	—	odds
7d	195	91.56%±12.1	+0.1σ	odds
30d	427	94.04%±8.18	+0.7σ	odds
All	427	94.04%±8.18	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 427 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 67	$339 484 coins	5.4%	11	6.4	1.72×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	27.0%	$209 298 coins	60.3%	118	115.3	1.02×
★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$181 258 coins	5.8%	14	12.8	1.09×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$148 211 coins	7.9%	19	21.4	0.89×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$104 149 coins	1.7%	1	6.4	0.16×
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$98.00 140 coins	6.3%	26	25.6	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$52.09 74.42 coins	1.7%	15	12.8	1.17×
P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$46.51 66.44 coins	4.0%	31	34.2	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$39.73 56.76 coins	2.6%	19	25.6	0.74×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$16.34 23.34 coins	0.9%	31	21.4	1.45×
P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$14.21 20.3 coins	1.2%	33	34.2	0.97×
P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	26.0%	$8.42 12.03 coins	2.3%	109	111.0	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$103147 coins$16.3423.34 coins0.16x28m

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Jhon csgoroll.com$103147 coins$339484 coins3.30x28m

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covertVnx6d$103147 coins$39.7356.76 coins0.39x21h

P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$103147 coins$8.4212.03 coins0.08x21h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$103147 coins$16.3423.34 coins0.16x21h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertVnx6d$103147 coins$209298 coins2.03x21h

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$103147 coins$39.7356.76 coins0.39x21h

P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$103147 coins$46.5166.44 coins0.45x21h

P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedVnx6d$103147 coins$8.4212.03 coins0.08x21h

P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$103147 coins$46.5166.44 coins0.45x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$103	90.91%	12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$104	90.91%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$104	90.91%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 44.0%extraordinary 6.0%classified 42.0%mil spec 8.0%best hit —