Esoteric

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.23

11.75 coins

Advertised RTP

90.94%

EV $7.48 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.53%

8,432 openings, odds method

Variance

49.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 83

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.74%±40.361,160 openings

7 days

88.18%±16.267,072 openings

30 days

85.53%±14.888,432 openings

since tracking started

85.53%±14.888,432 openings

49.5%90.5%131.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,160	90.74%±40.4	−0.0σ	odds
7d	7,072	88.18%±16.3	−0.3σ	odds
30d	8,432	85.53%±14.9	−0.7σ	odds
All	8,432	85.53%±14.9	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,458 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$2,205 3,150 coins	11.8%	2	3.4	0.59×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$638 912 coins	8.5%	11	8.5	1.30×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$566 809 coins	5.3%	2	5.9	0.34×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 4	1 in 667	$382 545 coins	7.7%	9	12.7	0.71×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 286	$333 475 coins	15.6%	29	29.6	0.98×
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$167 238 coins	11.1%	56	42.3	1.32×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 185	$83.30 119 coins	6.0%	46	45.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 133	$40.56 57.94 coins	4.1%	54	63.4	0.85×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$15.07 21.53 coins	2.0%	88	84.6	1.04×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 30	$10.53 15.04 coins	4.6%	266	279.1	0.95×
Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary	1 in 14	$7.83 11.18 coins	7.3%	552	592.1	0.93×
Sticker \| Opal Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 59	$7.05 10.07 coins	1.6%	149	143.8	1.04×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$2.25 3.21 coins	3.6%	993	1015.0	0.98×
Sticker \| Wildcard (Holo) \| Austin 2025sticker · uncommon	16.5%	$1.58 2.26 coins	3.5%	1,388	1395.6	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	25.0%	$1.36 1.94 coins	4.5%	2,148	2114.5	1.02×
Sticker \| Hypnoteyes (Holo)sticker · common	31.0%	$0.66 0.94 coins	2.7%	2,665	2622.0	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertOldSchoolBoys93$8.2411.77 coins$2,2053,150 coins267.6x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertJoeyPuddles$8.3411.91 coins$2,2053,150 coins264.5x5d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearln0va$8.2311.75 coins$638912 coins77.62x11h

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$8.2311.75 coins$638912 coins77.62x14h

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlArmaturaShtrejt$8.2311.75 coins$638912 coins77.62x19h

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$8.2311.75 coins$638912 coins77.62x1d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlPezar$8.2311.75 coins$638912 coins77.62x2d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$8.3111.87 coins$638912 coins76.83x2d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$8.3311.9 coins$638912 coins76.64x4d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlTiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com$8.3311.9 coins$638912 coins76.64x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo)sticker · common$8.2311.75 coins$0.660.94 coins0.08x23m

R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restricted$8.2311.75 coins$2.253.21 coins0.27x23m

Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary$8.2311.75 coins$7.8311.18 coins0.95x23m

Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinaryPOOF$8.2311.75 coins$7.8311.18 coins0.95x23m

Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo)sticker · common$8.2311.75 coins$0.660.94 coins0.08x39m

Sticker | Wildcard (Holo) | Austin 2025sticker · uncommonPOOF$8.2311.75 coins$1.582.26 coins0.19x39m

Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary$8.2311.75 coins$7.8311.18 coins0.95x39m

Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo)sticker · common$8.2311.75 coins$0.660.94 coins0.08x42m

R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restricted$8.2311.75 coins$2.253.21 coins0.27x42m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$8.23	90.94%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$8.31	90.88%	16
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$8.33	90.94%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$8.34	90.93%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%legendary 0.3%classified 2.8%#d32ce6 3.3%extraordinary 7.0%remarkable 1.7%restricted 12.0%uncommon 41.5%common 31.0%best hit $2,205 (267.6x)