Euphoria

A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.85

2.65 coins

Advertised RTP

90.86%

EV $1.69 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.67%

28.1K openings, odds method

Variance

6.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.57%±8.483,312 openings

7 days

90.68%±3.1822.9K openings

30 days

90.67%±2.8728.1K openings

since tracking started

90.67%±2.8728.1K openings

80.5%89.5%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,312	89.57%±8.48	−0.3σ	odds
7d	22.9K	90.68%±3.18	−0.1σ	odds
30d	28.1K	90.67%±2.87	−0.1σ	odds
All	28.1K	90.67%±2.87	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$89.60 128 coins	3.2%	16	16.9	0.95×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$79.10 113 coins	3.8%	18	22.5	0.80×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$75.60 108 coins	0.4%	0	2.8	0.00×
Sticker \| mousesports (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · exotic	1 in 1,000	$32.58 46.55 coins	1.9%	20	28.1	0.71×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$26.89 38.42 coins	16.0%	315	281.2	1.12×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 667	$22.81 32.59 coins	2.0%	34	42.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 400	$21.83 31.19 coins	3.2%	76	70.3	1.08×
Sticker \| n0rb3r7 (Foil) \| Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable	1 in 80	$6.39 9.13 coins	4.7%	336	351.5	0.96×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$6.13 8.75 coins	8.7%	679	674.8	1.01×
Sticker \| Outsiders (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · exotic	1 in 200	$5.09 7.27 coins	1.5%	125	140.6	0.89×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$4.31 6.15 coins	10.7%	1,202	1180.9	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 20	$4.13 5.9 coins	12.3%	1,452	1405.9	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$1.13 1.62 coins	6.7%	2,780	2811.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	20.0%	$0.63 0.9 coins	7.5%	5,608	5623.4	1.00×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	25.0%	$0.55 0.79 coins	8.2%	7,062	7029.3	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	30.0%	$0.51 0.73 coins	9.1%	8,394	8435.1	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.832.62 coins$91.70131 coins50.00x4d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertsushi🍣🦖$1.832.62 coins$91.70131 coins50.00x5d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.832.62 coins$91.70131 coins50.00x5d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.832.62 coins$91.70131 coins50.00x6d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.832.62 coins$91.70131 coins50.00x7d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert✪✪$1.832.62 coins$91.70131 coins50.00x7d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.832.62 coins$91.70131 coins50.00x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | Flux (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$1.852.65 coins$6.138.75 coins3.30x42s

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$1.852.65 coins$0.550.79 coins0.30x42s

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedTenzin Gyatso$1.852.65 coins$1.131.62 coins0.61x42s

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$1.852.65 coins$0.630.9 coins0.34x1m

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$1.852.65 coins$0.510.73 coins0.28x1m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$1.852.65 coins$0.550.79 coins0.30x1m

FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBlobfish$1.852.65 coins$26.8938.42 coins14.50x1m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$1.852.65 coins$0.550.79 coins0.30x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.86%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$1.85	90.86%	16
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$1.85	90.83%	16
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$1.88	90.87%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$1.83	91.08%	16
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$1.84	90.80%	16
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$1.83	91.07%	16
3 Nov, 09:32 UTC	$1.83	90.99%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.84	90.80%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%classified 2.6%exotic 0.6%restricted 60.2%remarkable 1.3%uncommon 5.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit $91.70 (50.00x)