Explorer
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$43.50
62.15 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $39.55 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.75%
84 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 84 openings and 9.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$43.6462.34 coins$563804 coins12.90x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertpuddleofcum$43.8762.67 coins$552788 coins12.57x
Latest dropsnewest first
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMiltsukkaaaw :3$43.5062.15 coins$4.125.89 coins0.09x
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified$43.5062.15 coins$59.4484.91 coins1.37x
P250 | Modern Hunter (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specNeonTropical$43.5062.15 coins$28.8741.24 coins0.66x
Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$43.5062.15 coins$6.319.01 coins0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $43.50 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $43.64 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.87 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%epic 0.1%extraordinary 4.6%covert 6.1%classified 3.8%mil spec 19.5%industrial 6.5%restricted 45.0%consumer 14.5%best hit $563 (12.90x)