Express
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.65
43.78 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $27.86 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.30%
410 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 410 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$30.6543.78 coins$88.20126 coins2.88x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.6543.78 coins$52.5175.02 coins1.71x
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedDoritosAndDew$30.6543.78 coins$24.0334.33 coins0.78x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.65 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.39 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.67 | 90.92% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%covert 10.6%extraordinary 7.0%classified 46.4%industrial 8.0%mil spec 12.0%uncommon 16.0%best hit —