Extraction

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$75.71

108 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $68.82 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

66.14%

143 openings, odds method

Variance

5.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

11 openings · below min

7 days

56.41%±40.51124 openings

30 days

66.14%±37.74143 openings

since tracking started

66.14%±37.74143 openings

-0.5%117.3%235.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11	99.39%±135.1	—	odds
7d	124	56.41%±40.5	−1.7σ	odds
30d	143	66.14%±37.7	−1.3σ	odds
All	143	66.14%±37.7	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 143 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 100,000	$21K 30,000 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,333	$1,438 2,054 coins	1.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,407 2,010 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 154	$1,353 1,933 coins	12.8%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,292 1,845 coins	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$1,047 1,496 coins	7.6%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 333	$649 927 coins	2.8%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$412 589 coins	7.5%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 125	$367 524 coins	4.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$225 321 coins	3.3%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 36	$179 255 coins	7.3%	4	4.0	1.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 43	$163 233 coins	5.5%	2	3.3	0.61×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$153 218 coins	8.9%	4	5.7	0.70×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$122 175 coins	2.7%	3	2.1	1.40×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 31	$88.20 126 coins	4.1%	7	4.6	1.53×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$83.30 119 coins	7.3%	11	8.6	1.28×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 22	$58.25 83.21 coins	3.8%	2	6.4	0.31×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · Emerald	1 in 13	$30.87 44.1 coins	3.4%	10	10.7	0.93×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$26.52 37.88 coins	3.5%	16	12.9	1.24×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	14.0%	$20.60 29.43 coins	4.2%	26	20.0	1.30×
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	15.5%	$12.70 18.14 coins	2.9%	21	22.1	0.95×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	12.0%	$12.39 17.7 coins	2.2%	23	17.2	1.34×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	13.0%	$8.12 11.6 coins	1.5%	12	18.6	0.65×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · epic$76.47109 coins$1,3991,999 coins18.30x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Demolition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$75.71108 coins$12.7018.14 coins0.17x53m

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$75.71108 coins$225321 coins2.97x53m

AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$75.71108 coins$83.30119 coins1.10x53m

AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covertCall me Johnny$75.71108 coins$83.30119 coins1.10x53m

UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon$75.71108 coins$8.1211.6 coins0.11x1h

★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · Emerald$75.71108 coins$30.8744.1 coins0.41x1h

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted$75.71108 coins$20.6029.43 coins0.27x1h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeCall me Johnny$75.71108 coins$88.20126 coins1.17x1h

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryPontus$75.71108 coins$122175 coins1.62x17h

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$75.71108 coins$122175 coins1.62x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$75.71	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$75.19	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$76.47	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.1%covert 20.3%extraordinary 10.1%epic 0.7%restricted 30.7%covert knife 3.2%mil spec 9.0%classified 12.0%uncommon 13.0%best hit $1,399 (18.30x)