Extreme
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.04
8.63 coins
Advertised RTP
90.86%
EV $5.49 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.30%
25K openings, odds method
Variance
60.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 182
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryMalstR0m$5.858.35 coins$1,2581,797 coins215.2x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5.858.35 coins$9851,407 coins168.5x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5.858.35 coins$9851,407 coins168.5x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5.858.35 coins$9851,407 coins168.5x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · coverttheWILLEw$5.858.35 coins$9851,407 coins168.5x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertMax1m$5.858.35 coins$9851,407 coins168.5x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertLny$5.858.35 coins$9851,407 coins168.5x
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedsnitch9ine$6.048.63 coins$0.300.43 coins0.05x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$6.048.63 coins$388554 coins64.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $6.04 | 90.86% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $6.04 | 90.90% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.03 | 90.93% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.05 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.85 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 1.4%legendary 0.1%restricted 28.2%Legendary 0.8%mil spec 32.5%industrial 37.0%best hit $1,258 (215.2x)