Faded Case
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$96.14
137 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $87.40 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.56%
183 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 183 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,970 2,815 coins | 22.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $1,165 1,664 coins | 13.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $368 526 coins | 4.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.64× |
| ★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $316 452 coins | 7.2% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $241 344 coins | 5.5% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $103 147 coins | 3.5% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.46× |
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 45.0% | $74.90 107 coins | 38.6% | 82 | 82.4 | 1.00× |
| MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 45.0% | $9.84 14.06 coins | 5.1% | 81 | 82.4 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covertJhon csgoroll.com$96.14137 coins$74.90107 coins0.78x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $96.14 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $96.06 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $96.26 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 51.0%restricted 46.0%extraordinary 3.0%best hit $1,946 (20.22x)