Fairytale

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$45.74

65.35 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $41.58 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.41%

167 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

9 openings · below min

7 days

87.53%±16.93139 openings

30 days

87.41%±15.45167 openings

since tracking started

87.41%±15.45167 openings

-0.5%55.3%111.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9	44.83%±65.6	—	odds
7d	139	87.53%±16.9	−0.4σ	odds
30d	167	87.41%±15.5	−0.4σ	odds
All	167	87.41%±15.5	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 167 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary	1 in 200	$427 610 coins	5.1%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$186 266 coins	13.4%	5	5.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$120 171 coins	5.8%	3	3.3	0.90×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$118 169 coins	8.5%	7	5.0	1.40×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$82.60 118 coins	6.0%	4	5.0	0.80×
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 50	$74.90 107 coins	3.6%	3	3.3	0.90×
USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$62.03 88.61 coins	4.5%	5	5.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$51.69 73.84 coins	8.7%	12	11.7	1.03×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$48.50 69.28 coins	3.5%	7	5.0	1.40×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$41.85 59.78 coins	6.0%	5	10.0	0.50×
P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$39.56 56.52 coins	3.8%	6	6.7	0.90×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.0%	$30.46 43.51 coins	11.0%	28	25.1	1.12×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$29.41 42.02 coins	4.2%	11	10.0	1.10×
USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$28.34 40.49 coins	4.8%	10	11.7	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$27.54 39.34 coins	2.0%	7	5.0	1.40×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.0%	$17.72 25.31 coins	6.4%	28	25.1	1.12×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	17.5%	$6.38 9.11 coins	2.7%	26	29.2	0.89×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Business Class (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$45.7465.35 coins$28.3440.49 coins0.62x15m

Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$45.7465.35 coins$30.4643.51 coins0.67x15m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedgifu$45.7465.35 coins$17.7225.31 coins0.39x15m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$45.7465.35 coins$6.389.11 coins0.14x16h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedcsgoroll prayer$45.7465.35 coins$6.389.11 coins0.14x16h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$45.7465.35 coins$17.7225.31 coins0.39x16h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$45.7465.35 coins$29.4142.02 coins0.64x16h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$45.7465.35 coins$17.7225.31 coins0.39x16h

Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$45.7465.35 coins$30.4643.51 coins0.67x16h

M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covertVeckans$45.7465.35 coins$51.6973.84 coins1.13x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$45.74	90.90%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$45.49	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$45.41	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.5%covert 21.0%restricted 38.5%classified 33.0%mil spec 7.0%best hit —