Fallout
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.89
42.7 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $27.18 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.43%
338 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 338 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exoticMiltsukkaaaw :3$29.8942.7 coins$4.566.52 coins0.15x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.89 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.32 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.04 | 90.92% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 4.6%covert 14.4%restricted 25.9%classified 15.1%mil spec 20.0%exotic 20.0%best hit $525 (17.47x)