Fantasy

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.16

14.51 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $9.24 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.44%

4,258 openings, odds method

Variance

10.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.33%±20.58928 openings

7 days

100.79%±10.423,542 openings

30 days

101.44%±9.504,258 openings

since tracking started

101.44%±9.504,258 openings

78.0%99.3%120.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.95% – 110.94%, 4,258 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	928	99.33%±20.6	+0.8σ	odds
7d	3,542	100.79%±10.4	+1.8σ	odds
30d	4,258	101.44%±9.50	+2.2σ	odds
All	4,258	101.44%±9.50	+2.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,258 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 4,000	$1,553 2,219 coins	4.2%	2	1.1	1.88×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 3	1 in 2,500	$347 496 coins	1.5%	2	1.7	1.17×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,538	$300 429 coins	2.1%	8	2.8	2.89×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,000	$228 326 coins	2.5%	9	4.3	2.11×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 154	$178 254 coins	12.5%	32	27.7	1.16×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 286	$140 200 coins	5.3%	15	14.9	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 1,429	$56.17 80.24 coins	0.4%	3	3.0	1.01×
Sticker \| Flash Gaming (Holo) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 77	$43.42 62.03 coins	6.1%	50	55.4	0.90×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$36.88 52.69 coins	6.0%	70	63.9	1.10×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$20.36 29.08 coins	6.6%	138	127.7	1.08×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$16.90 24.14 coins	9.1%	200	212.9	0.94×
Nova \| Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$15.55 22.21 coins	11.8%	273	298.1	0.92×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$8.42 12.03 coins	0.8%	45	38.3	1.17×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	11.0%	$6.92 9.89 coins	8.2%	521	468.4	1.11×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.0%	$4.84 6.91 coins	6.8%	518	553.5	0.94×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	18.0%	$4.69 6.7 coins	9.1%	722	766.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$2.37 3.38 coins	4.6%	759	766.4	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	20.0%	$1.01 1.44 coins	2.2%	891	851.6	1.05×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$10.3614.8 coins$1,5532,219 coins149.9x4d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$10.3614.8 coins$1,5532,219 coins149.9x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$10.1614.51 coins$2.373.38 coins0.23x49m

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1614.51 coins$1.011.44 coins0.10x49m

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$10.1614.51 coins$4.696.7 coins0.46x49m

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1614.51 coins$1.011.44 coins0.10x49m

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedR1ckes$10.1614.51 coins$4.696.7 coins0.46x49m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$10.1614.51 coins$2.373.38 coins0.23x49m

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1614.51 coins$1.011.44 coins0.10x1h

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specGaara$10.1614.51 coins$2.373.38 coins0.23x1h

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$10.1614.51 coins$4.846.91 coins0.48x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$10.16	90.92%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$10.35	90.93%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$10.36	90.89%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%legendary 0.0%classified 2.1%extraordinary 0.4%rare 0.1%remarkable 1.3%pink 3.0%restricted 34.0%blue 7.0%mil spec 31.9%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit $1,553 (149.9x)