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Fate

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$4.72
6.74 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $4.29 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.39%
62.9K openings, odds method
Variance
12.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
89.66%±7.119,498 openings
7 days
92.75%±3.0453.5K openings
30 days
92.39%±2.8162.9K openings
since tracking started
92.39%±2.8162.9K openings
82.0%89.8%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h9,49889.66%±7.11−0.3σodds
7d53.5K92.75%±3.04+1.2σodds
30d62.9K92.39%±2.81+1.1σodds
All62.9K92.39%±2.81+1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 10,000$291 416 coins0.7%56.30.79×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 125$109 156 coins20.4%519503.61.03×
★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 333$107 153 coins7.5%190188.81.01×
★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 1,000$104 149 coins2.4%6362.91.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 56$72.10 103 coins30.3%1,1921133.01.05×
★ Falchion Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 169$63.79 91.13 coins8.8%354371.40.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$28.64 40.91 coins20.0%1,8851888.31.00×
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 29$12.39 17.7 coins9.8%2,1282140.10.99×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer45.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.1%28,48028325.31.01×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer45.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.1%28,12928325.30.99×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4zero without cheats :/$4.796.85 coins$305435 coins63.50x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4✪ＡNt csgoroll.com$4.796.85 coins$305435 coins63.50x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$4.796.85 coins$305435 coins63.50x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4UnfairScroll27$4.796.85 coins$305435 coins63.50x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Pflaumenhandel$4.796.85 coins$305435 coins63.50x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$4.726.74 coins$291416 coins61.72x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$4.726.74 coins$291416 coins61.72x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$4.666.66 coins$291416 coins62.46x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$4.726.74 coins$72.10103 coins15.28x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$4.726.74 coins$28.6440.91 coins6.07x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$4.726.74 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$4.726.74 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.726.74 coins$12.3917.7 coins2.63x
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLord Gaben$4.726.74 coins$12.3917.7 coins2.63x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$4.726.74 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$4.726.74 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerJpoke$4.726.74 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerJpoke$4.726.74 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$4.7290.91%10
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$4.6890.85%10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$4.7990.87%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.8%classified 7.2%consumer 90.0%best hit $305 (63.50x)