Fear
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$87.55
125 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $79.59 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.47%
82 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 82 openings and 12.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedAnh Trithong$87.55125 coins$10.7915.42 coins0.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $87.55 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $87.56 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $88.66 | 90.91% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 59.9%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 32.0%industrial 3.0%classified 5.0%best hit —