Feeling Lucky
A case on CSGORoll (hot), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.30
1.85 coins
Advertised RTP
91.01%
EV $1.18 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.14%
29.4K openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.30 | 91.01% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.27 | 90.68% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%consumer 99.9%best hit $74.90 (58.79x)