Feral

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$85.38

122 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $77.62 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.08%

419 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

25 openings · below min

7 days

88.99%±12.09365 openings

30 days

90.08%±11.27419 openings

since tracking started

90.08%±11.27419 openings

48.0%95.8%143.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	25	95.67%±47.1	—	odds
7d	365	88.99%±12.1	−0.3σ	odds
30d	419	90.08%±11.3	−0.1σ	odds
All	419	90.08%±11.3	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 421 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 10,000	$4,305 6,150 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$1,177 1,682 coins	3.0%	0	0.8	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$776 1,108 coins	0.5%	2	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,250	$767 1,095 coins	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 667	$592 846 coins	1.1%	0	0.6	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$557 796 coins	3.6%	2	2.1	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$540 772 coins	2.1%	1	1.3	0.79×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$455 650 coins	0.6%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$361 516 coins	7.0%	5	6.3	0.79×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 143	$270 386 coins	2.4%	6	2.9	2.04×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$267 382 coins	3.4%	4	4.2	0.95×
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$155 221 coins	6.0%	12	12.6	0.95×
AUG \| Copperhead (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$119 170 coins	6.1%	20	16.8	1.19×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	16.6%	$108 154 coins	23.0%	67	69.7	0.96×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 43	$103 147 coins	3.0%	10	9.7	1.03×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 80	$95.20 136 coins	1.5%	5	5.3	0.95×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 56	$80.50 115 coins	1.9%	7	7.6	0.92×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$75.60 108 coins	4.9%	19	21.1	0.90×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 22	$54.74 78.2 coins	3.2%	21	18.9	1.11×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$44.70 63.86 coins	4.0%	34	29.5	1.15×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	14.0%	$40.21 57.44 coins	7.3%	69	58.9	1.17×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	14.0%	$39.71 56.73 coins	7.2%	56	58.9	0.95×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$26.82 38.32 coins	2.1%	14	25.3	0.55×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	16.0%	$22.94 32.77 coins	4.7%	67	67.4	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$85.04121 coins$8551,222 coins10.06x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$85.38122 coins$7761,108 coins9.08x2d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$85.37122 coins$540772 coins6.33x2d

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$85.04121 coins$525750 coins6.17x5d

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$85.04121 coins$525750 coins6.17x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$85.38122 coins$75.60108 coins0.89x5h

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert$85.38122 coins$361516 coins4.23x6h

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$85.38122 coins$103147 coins1.21x7h

MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified$85.38122 coins$39.7156.73 coins0.47x9h

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covertJakymowsky$85.38122 coins$108154 coins1.26x15h

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$85.38122 coins$54.7478.2 coins0.64x15h

Galil AR | Cerberus (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$85.38122 coins$22.9432.77 coins0.27x15h

MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified$85.38122 coins$39.7156.73 coins0.47x15h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$85.38122 coins$40.2157.44 coins0.47x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$85.38	90.91%	24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$85.79	90.91%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$85.04	90.91%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 22.8%covert 35.9%epic 0.2%mil spec 4.0%classified 21.0%restricted 16.0%best hit $855 (10.06x)