Fifty-Fifty
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.96
2.8 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $1.78 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.68%
27.3K openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $3.98 5.68 coins | 44.6% | 5,382 | 5472.6 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $3.72 5.31 coins | 20.9% | 2,792 | 2736.3 | 1.02× |
| PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $2.06 2.94 coins | 11.6% | 2,652 | 2736.3 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.83 2.62 coins | 20.6% | 5,596 | 5472.6 | 1.02× |
| M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.21 0.3 coins | 1.2% | 2,726 | 2736.3 | 1.00× |
| Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $0.07 0.1 coins | 1.2% | 8,215 | 8208.9 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $1.96 | 90.89% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.96 | 90.96% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.97 | 91.00% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.97 | 91.03% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $1.99 | 90.95% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $2.00 | 90.84% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $2.00 | 90.94% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $2.02 | 90.80% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.02 | 90.87% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.04 | 90.82% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 40.0%industrial 40.0%consumer 10.0%mil spec 10.0%best hit —