Finish line

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.87

6.96 coins

Advertised RTP

90.87%

EV $4.43 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.78%

14.2K openings, odds method

Variance

11.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.42%±15.611,727 openings

7 days

98.71%±5.8212.3K openings

30 days

96.78%±5.4314.2K openings

since tracking started

96.78%±5.4314.2K openings

65.0%85.0%105.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.35% – 102.20%, 14,176 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,727	81.42%±15.6	−1.2σ	odds
7d	12.3K	98.71%±5.82	+2.6σ	odds
30d	14.2K	96.78%±5.43	+2.1σ	odds
All	14.2K	96.78%±5.43	+2.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| LGB eSports \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 15,385	$783 1,119 coins	1.2%	3	0.9	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 13,333	$627 896 coins	1.1%	2	1.1	1.88×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 6,667	$377 539 coins	1.3%	4	2.1	1.88×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$277 395 coins	3.2%	8	7.2	1.11×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$137 196 coins	2.2%	8	9.9	0.81×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 400	$113 162 coins	6.4%	39	35.5	1.10×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$62.86 89.8 coins	9.9%	114	99.3	1.15×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$56.55 80.78 coins	12.8%	133	141.8	0.94×
Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Foil) \| London 2018sticker · exotic	1 in 83	$32.56 46.52 coins	8.8%	175	170.2	1.03×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$27.05 38.65 coins	7.9%	193	184.4	1.05×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$19.36 27.66 coins	6.6%	210	212.8	0.99×
Krakow 2017 Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · base	1 in 67	$18.73 26.76 coins	6.3%	227	212.8	1.07×
Sticker \| Gambit Esports (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · exotic	1 in 59	$17.76 25.37 coins	6.8%	245	241.1	1.02×
AUG \| Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$9.32 13.31 coins	15.2%	991	1021.2	0.97×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	27.0%	$0.64 0.91 coins	3.9%	3,897	3829.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	27.5%	$0.55 0.79 coins	3.4%	3,857	3900.6	0.99×
Sticker \| fame (Glitter) \| Rio 2022sticker · remarkable	29.0%	$0.47 0.67 coins	3.1%	4,078	4113.4	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014sticker · high$4.876.96 coins$7831,119 coins160.8x1d

Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014sticker · high$4.967.09 coins$7831,119 coins157.8x2d

Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014sticker · high$4.967.09 coins$7831,119 coins157.8x4d

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$4.977.1 coins$627896 coins126.2x2d

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$4.967.09 coins$611873 coins123.1x5d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare$4.876.96 coins$377539 coins77.44x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rareCassE$4.967.09 coins$362517 coins72.92x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare$4.967.09 coins$362517 coins72.92x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare$4.967.09 coins$362517 coins72.92x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$4.876.96 coins$277395 coins56.75x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$4.876.96 coins$0.550.79 coins0.11x10m

Sticker | fame (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · remarkablesi^b^rO$4.876.96 coins$0.470.67 coins0.10x10m

Sticker | fame (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · remarkable$4.876.96 coins$0.470.67 coins0.10x35m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$4.876.96 coins$0.640.91 coins0.13x35m

StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricteddinmor$4.876.96 coins$0.550.79 coins0.11x35m

Sticker | fame (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · remarkable$4.876.96 coins$0.470.67 coins0.10x35m

StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$4.876.96 coins$0.550.79 coins0.11x35m

AUG | Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restricteddinmor$4.876.96 coins$9.3213.31 coins1.91x35m

Sticker | fame (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · remarkable$4.876.96 coins$0.470.67 coins0.10x37m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$4.87	90.87%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$4.87	90.88%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$4.94	90.90%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.96	90.95%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedhigh 0.0%legendary 0.0%rare 0.0%covert 0.3%classified 2.9%extraordinary 0.7%restricted 35.7%exotic 2.9%base 1.5%mil spec 27.0%remarkable 29.0%best hit $783 (160.8x)