Fire Frenzy
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$36.29
51.84 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $32.99 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.52%
1,347 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,351 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $36.29 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $36.66 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.95 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 12.0%covert 29.6%extraordinary 1.6%mil spec 24.0%restricted 32.8%best hit $655 (17.71x)