Fireflies

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.08

5.83 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $3.71 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.73%

22K openings, odds method

Variance

6.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.88%±9.952,657 openings

7 days

92.09%±3.7518.2K openings

30 days

90.73%±3.4022K openings

since tracking started

90.73%±3.4022K openings

81.5%92.0%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,657	91.88%±9.95	+0.2σ	odds
7d	18.2K	92.09%±3.75	+0.6σ	odds
30d	22K	90.73%±3.40	−0.1σ	odds
All	22K	90.73%±3.40	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1	1 in 100,000	$629 898 coins	0.2%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$98.70 141 coins	17.0%	138	141.2	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$66.79 95.42 coins	3.6%	46	44.1	1.04×
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$62.49 89.27 coins	0.2%	4	2.2	1.81×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$59.89 85.56 coins	1.6%	19	22.1	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$51.58 73.69 coins	4.2%	67	66.2	1.01×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 200	$45.34 64.77 coins	6.1%	105	110.3	0.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$36.93 52.75 coins	4.0%	68	88.2	0.77×
Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 182	$27.60 39.43 coins	4.1%	123	121.3	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$24.22 34.6 coins	5.2%	183	176.5	1.04×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 111	$22.79 32.56 coins	5.5%	229	198.5	1.15×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$13.29 18.98 coins	7.2%	426	441.1	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Scorched (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 20	$6.79 9.7 coins	9.2%	1,113	1102.9	1.01×
Galil AR \| Shattered (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 25	$6.69 9.55 coins	7.2%	927	882.3	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$5.74 8.2 coins	4.6%	663	661.7	1.00×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$4.69 6.7 coins	10.2%	1,690	1786.6	0.95×
Charm \| Diamond Dogcharm · rare	1 in 67	$4.33 6.18 coins	1.7%	306	330.9	0.92×
Galil AR \| Shattered (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$3.26 4.66 coins	6.2%	1,544	1544.0	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$0.26 0.37 coins	1.4%	4,484	4411.4	1.02×
Nova \| Caged Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	20.0%	$0.06 0.09 coins	0.3%	4,372	4411.4	0.99×
Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	25.0%	$0.04 0.06 coins	0.3%	5,549	5514.0	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1$4.095.84 coins$629898 coins153.8x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.085.83 coins$0.260.37 coins0.06x10m

Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$4.085.83 coins$0.060.09 coins0.02x10m

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialShelp Jr.$4.085.83 coins$0.040.06 coins0.01x10m

Galil AR | Shattered (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec$4.085.83 coins$6.699.55 coins1.64x29m

CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$4.085.83 coins$5.748.2 coins1.41x29m

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedAxiomatic csgoroll.com$4.085.83 coins$24.2234.6 coins5.93x29m

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$4.085.83 coins$0.040.06 coins0.01x31m

Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.085.83 coins$0.260.37 coins0.06x31m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC	$4.08	90.92%	21
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$4.08	90.93%	21
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$4.08	90.96%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$4.12	90.84%	21
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC	$4.10	90.86%	21
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.09	90.97%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.10	90.88%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.6%classified 1.4%rare 2.0%restricted 30.5%exotic 0.5%violet 0.9%consumer 5.0%Mil Spec 4.0%mil spec 10.0%industrial 45.0%best hit $629 (153.8x)