Firestarter
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.67
43.82 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $27.89 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.64%
1,069 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,111 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specEl Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐$30.6743.82 coins$0.190.27 coins0.01x
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$30.6743.82 coins$27.3839.11 coins0.89x
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$30.6743.82 coins$27.3839.11 coins0.89x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil speccsgoroll prayer$30.6743.82 coins$1.952.78 coins0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $30.67 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.67 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.90 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $31.37 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $31.37 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $31.32 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.32 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 20.8%covert 17.7%extraordinary 12.5%base 4.0%mil spec 45.0%best hit —