Fireworks Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.15
35.93 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $22.87 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.30%
758 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 758 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireNoSkIlL$25.1735.96 coins$1,0561,508 coins41.94x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$25.1535.93 coins$5.337.62 coins0.21x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCousin of po$25.1535.93 coins$5.337.62 coins0.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.15 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.51 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.17 | 90.90% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.0%restricted 33.0%classified 31.0%legendary 0.0%mil spec 29.0%best hit $1,056 (41.94x)