Flamingo
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.85
8.36 coins
Advertised RTP
90.87%
EV $5.32 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.20%
22.5K openings, odds method
Variance
15.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covertDark Zuckerberg$5.858.36 coins$410586 coins70.10x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $5.85 | 90.87% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.85 | 90.94% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.93 | 90.96% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $5.87 | 90.88% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.89 | 90.88% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.1%classified 4.4%rare 0.8%restricted 1.9%pink 0.8%high 30.0%remarkable 60.0%best hit $410 (70.10x)