Flare

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$176.65

252 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $160.59 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.48%

157 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

9 openings · below min

7 days

98 openings · below min

30 days

83.48%±13.93157 openings

since tracking started

83.48%±13.93157 openings

13.0%71.8%130.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9	71.85%±58.1	—	odds
7d	98	88.50%±17.6	—	odds
30d	157	83.48%±13.9	−1.0σ	odds
All	157	83.48%±13.9	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 158 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$1,047 1,496 coins	13.0%	2	3.2	0.63×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$888 1,269 coins	2.8%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50	$415 593 coins	5.2%	2	3.2	0.63×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$295 421 coins	3.7%	7	3.2	2.22×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$246 351 coins	4.6%	4	4.7	0.84×
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$239 342 coins	4.5%	2	4.7	0.42×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$239 341 coins	5.9%	3	6.3	0.47×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$229 327 coins	4.3%	8	4.7	1.69×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 25	$206 294 coins	5.1%	6	6.3	0.95×
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$204 292 coins	3.8%	7	4.7	1.48×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$191 273 coins	7.1%	6	9.5	0.63×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	15.0%	$141 201 coins	13.1%	18	23.7	0.76×
Sticker \| fitch (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 14	$122 175 coins	5.3%	11	11.1	0.99×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 17	$121 173 coins	4.5%	14	9.5	1.48×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	15.0%	$90.30 129 coins	8.4%	28	23.7	1.18×
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14	$66.84 95.48 coins	2.9%	18	11.1	1.63×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	17.5%	$51.69 73.84 coins	5.6%	22	27.6	0.80×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.