Flimsy
A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.29
6.13 coins
Advertised RTP
90.95%
EV $3.90 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.53%
49.5K openings, odds method
Variance
21.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 42
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$4.296.13 coins$0.060.09 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $4.29 | 90.95% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.30 | 90.90% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.38 | 90.93% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.42 | 90.86% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.41 | 90.94% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.9%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 1.0%classified 2.0%industrial 95.0%best hit $326 (73.81x)