Flipped
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$43.25
61.79 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $39.32 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.09%
474 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 486 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New)weapon · mil specMASON92J$43.2561.79 coins$29.1341.61 coins0.67x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerViggerMcNieger$43.2561.79 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $43.25 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $43.68 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.44 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.5%industrial 16.9%classified 12.6%mil spec 25.0%consumer 25.0%best hit —